What the hell?

Zwischenstand Obama : McCain

174 : 49 ORF

175 : 61 BBC

26 : 8 NY Times

103 : 34 LA Times

174 : 49 CNN

Jeder „projected“ auf Teufel komm raus.

BBC erklärt es wenigstens: The Associated Press is providing the election result data for BBC News. The AP is the sole organisation responsible for providing the results for the major American media networks. The information they provide will form the basis for election results but different broadcasters may decide to interpret partial results in different ways. The BBC will report state results based on AP and one other major US media network, or our close partners ABC News alone.

How do the results take shape and what are „projected results“?

Initially the outcome of the US election is likely to be a „projection“, based on exit polls and/or partial results. This means the result will be labelled as projected until all the votes are counted.

The reason for this is that states are often called, or declared, for a candidate, on the basis of incomplete figures. The American electoral system enables each state to release partial results to the public well before they have counted every single vote. Results are later confirmed once all the votes have come in.

For races that are not very close the US networks are likely to project a winner as soon as the polls close, based on exit poll data. For closer races the US networks will wait until there’s more actual vote data. It can take hours or even all night.

If a projection is not immediate, it doesn’t mean it is ‚too close to call‘, rather it may simply be ‚too early to call‘ because the networks have insufficient data.

Are the projections ever wrong?

Yes, particularly if the election is very close. Most memorably the major US networks, including Fox, CNN, NBC, CBS, and ABC gave Florida to Al Gore in 2000, only to retract that and then give it to George W Bush, and then to retract that while the result was under dispute.

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